Ceasefire as an opportunity for Russia

Before Putin leaves office, a major war in Europe remains a serious threat. Possible ceasefire agreements will only partially address a broader problem for the Russian president who wants to take part in a new division of influence in the world and to satisfy a similar desire on behalf of the population that he has indoctrinated.

Whether the war remains cold or turns hot depends largely on the willingness of European countries to resist Russian aggression. The plans of the United States to cut support for Ukraine and shift on to Europe full responsibility for the war and, more broadly, security on the continent, are a factor that may provoke Putin.

Putin sees the opportunity for strategic bargaining, using negotiations on a ceasefire as a tool to achieve broader objectives. The Kremlin’s priority is not Ukraine but a wider deal with the West – one that should include sanctions relief and a revision of European security arrangements. The main goal is to consolidate territorial gains while minimising the long-term costs of the war. Whatever the outcome, the Kremlin will aim to limit Ukraine’s military capabilities, restrict the deployment of its armed forces. It will also not allow the presence of any Western military forces on Ukrainian soil.

A key strategic objective for the Kremlin could be the destabilisation of Ukraine. Any concessions made by Kyiv in negotiations could erode President Volodymyr Zelensky’s authority and lead to his defeat in elections. A change of leadership in Ukraine remains one of Moscow’s core demands and a key element of any future settlement. Yet Zelensky continues to enjoy broad domestic support, while opposition forces are divided and do not appear ready to consolidate.

The likelihood of Russian interference in Ukraine’s elections is relatively high, raising the possibility of a scenario similar to Georgia, where the party that won the election and the government are under strong Kremlin influence. Other serious factors that could destabilise Ukraine include:

• External  – The West’s reluctance to take an active role in strengthening Ukrainian state institutions and a decision not to accelerate Ukraine’s economic integration with the EU.
• Internal – Ukraine’s struggle with old problems (corruption, judicial dependence) and new ones (censorship, political repression).

The effect of some or all of these factors could persuade western countries to minimise their involvement in Ukraine’s reconstruction and potentially force Ukrainian elites to consider restoring ties with Russia.

Russian public opinion has shifted unexpectedly since negotiations began. Previously, a significant portion of the population supported peace, as long as it was presented as Putin’s decision. However, Trump’s involvement has altered this dynamic – nearly half of respondents now oppose any concessions. The Kremlin now faces a new dilemma. Strategically, it may be advantageous to agree to a ceasefire, but the population may view it as a sign of weakness by the authorities.

Beyond public sentiment, Putin must also weigh other strong factors in favour of prolonging the war. Among these are the strong influence of the rapidly expanded military-industrial complex and the unwillingness of hundreds of thousands of contract soldiers and their families to pass up what are by Russian standards huge sums of money made possible by the war, including payments for wounded and dead soldiers.

The timeline for a renewal of hostilities ranges from a month – if negotiations collapse – to as long as three and a half years, coinciding with the end of a potential Trump presidency. This assumes that Trump can reach an understanding with Moscow in exchange for significant concessions, such as lifting sanctions and the withdrawal of US forces from areas in Europe close to Russia. Trump himself seems to favour such moves.