Peace by blackmail: The Kremlin increases its pressure on Europe
On 25 August, CIA Director John Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow. The purpose of the visit was not officially disclosed, but, according to media reports, he warned the Kremlin against attacking NATO or providing military assistance to Iran. Against the backdrop of a possible military mobilisation in Russia and reports of Putin’s plans to attack EU countries, Ratcliffe’s unexplained visit only adds to concerns about possible escalation. The last time a CIA director visited Moscow was in autumn 2021, when William Burns travelled there amid the build-up of troops near Ukraine’s borders to warn of the consequences of an invasion. However, amid a prolonged war of attrition in Ukraine, the Kremlin is unlikely to seek a real confrontation with the West: Putin is using his customary diplomatic tactic of extracting concessions through the threat of escalation.
A year after the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska, the ‘spirit of Anchorage’ – Russian officials’ term for certain understandings which were supposedly reached between Russia and the United States on ending the war – has evaporated, while Trump has ceased to focus on Ukraine. After meeting Sergei Lavrov in July this year, Marco Rubio acknowledged that ‘new ideas’ were needed to restart the peace negotiations. To regain the White House’s attention, without which it is impossible to end the war on favourable terms, Moscow has decided to raise the stakes in Europe.
Europe is facing a new and intensified wave of sabotage. In the past month alone, explosions have occurred at munitions factories in Italy and Bulgaria. Several drones carrying explosives were found at or near Leipzig Airport, while a weapons cache was discovered outside Berlin. Intelligence agencies have linked all these incidents to Russia. At the same time, people suspected of espionage on behalf of the Kremlin are being detained across the EU.
In this way, the Kremlin is making the threat of further escalation increasingly credible. Hybrid operations are particularly well suited to this purpose: they do not require extensive resources, but enable Moscow to provoke concern in Europe without moving towards a direct confrontation with NATO. In addition, the Kremlin retains options for larger provocations in countries bordering the EU that are not members of the Alliance. In particular, according to Western intelligence services, Putin views Moldova as an ideal staging ground for further hybrid aggression against Ukraine and the West.
The use of these tactics does not mean that the Kremlin is in fact preparing for large-scale military aggression against European countries. Even if mobilisation begins after the State Duma elections, Putin will not have the necessary manpower this year. By intensifying the threat, including through hybrid warfare, Putin aims not only to influence European voters, but also to compel Trump to intervene and push Europe and Ukraine towards peace negotiations – on terms favourable to the Kremlin.