The Kremlin sees US exit threats from Ukraine talks as a tactic, not a real risk – and may use them to boost its own position
Russia rejects a simple ceasefire – seeking a broader deal on European security – but may still compromise if the US offers firm strategic guarantees
Putin’s Murmansk speech signals a bid to reshape global order – reviving spheres of influence and sidelining universal norms
Putin sees progress in Ukraine, but war strains mount. Labour and equipment shortages grow, while Russia leans on allies to sustain its military and economy
Russia’s maritime ambitions face setbacks as logistical and financial challenges hinder progress on key projects, such as the Northern Sea Route
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