Putin spotlights economic decline as elections near, fueling elite tensions, pressure on government, and rising influence of security services
The Russian economy is gradually losing resilience and drawing down its reserves. The war in the Persian Gulf provides the Kremlin with temporary relief, but does not resolve underlying problems
Putin’s call for 'voluntary' business contributions is less about funding the war and more about reaffirming elite loyalty in an increasingly coercive system
Moscow hopes to maximise economic and geopolitical gains from the Iran crisis while avoiding the risks of a prolonged conflict
The Russian authorities are seeking sources of funding for the growing budget deficit, while preparing to tighten fiscal discipline and mobilise resources
After four years of war, Russia has hardened into a more personalist and repressive system, adjusted its economy to prolonged confrontation, and signalled readiness for a sustained standoff with the West
The key rate cut comes amid stagnation in the civilian economy and mounting fiscal risks from a stronger rouble and weaker oil revenues
Production, exports and revenues are declining; sanctions mostly changed how Russia sells, not how much it sells
The main risk for the West is Russia’s growing structural dependence on China, not the formation of a formal alliance
Russia enters 2026 with inflation under control but growth exhausted: a war-driven economy, fiscal constraints, and sanctions leave little room for recovery and heighten the risk of recession
Putin’s 2025 Direct Line makes clear that Russia is being locked into a present defined by war, economic constraint, and permanent confrontation with the West, with no vision for the future
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
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