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Briefing Notes

Playing the arms race game: Russia’s post-New START calculus

With New START expired, Moscow is signalling arms-race readiness-but in reality is seeking to freeze the current nuclear balance and slow US modernisation

Short Analysis

Trump in the Russian mirror: A year of shifting narratives

How Russian media portrays Trump’s second term – from cautious hope to strategic recalibration

Briefing Notes

The United States against Europe: Putin the winner

US-Europe tensions over Greenland are weakening transatlantic unity, expanding Russia’s room for manoeuvre, while simultaneously exposing the strategic and economic limits of the Kremlin’s ambitions, particularly in the Arctic

Briefing Notes

Protests in Iran: Another setback for the Kremlin?

The fall of the Iranian regime would be a political blow for Moscow, further weakening its position in the Middle East, but it would not significantly affect Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine

Briefing Notes

Might makes right: How Maduro’s capture has affected Moscow’s position

The US capture of Maduro exposes Russia’s limited power, while normalising a force-based world order the Kremlin can exploit to legitimise its war against Ukraine

Short Analysis

The price of stability: What awaits Russia’s economy in 2026?

Russia enters 2026 with inflation under control but growth exhausted: a war-driven economy, fiscal constraints, and sanctions leave little room for recovery and heighten the risk of recession

Briefing Notes

Year in review: What future does Putin offer Russia?

Putin’s 2025 Direct Line makes clear that Russia is being locked into a present defined by war, economic constraint, and permanent confrontation with the West, with no vision for the future

Short Analysis

Igor Krasnov’s move to the Supreme Court

Igor Krasnov’s appointment to the Supreme Court reflects the Kremlin’s effort to dismantle judicial autonomy and consolidate even tighter central control

Briefing Notes

Playing the arms race game: Russia’s post-New START calculus

With New START expired, Moscow is signalling arms-race readiness-but in reality is seeking to freeze the current nuclear balance and slow US modernisation

Short Analysis

Trump in the Russian mirror: A year of shifting narratives

How Russian media portrays Trump’s second term – from cautious hope to strategic recalibration

Briefing Notes

The United States against Europe: Putin the winner

US-Europe tensions over Greenland are weakening transatlantic unity, expanding Russia’s room for manoeuvre, while simultaneously exposing the strategic and economic limits of the Kremlin’s ambitions, particularly in the Arctic

Briefing Notes

Protests in Iran: Another setback for the Kremlin?

The fall of the Iranian regime would be a political blow for Moscow, further weakening its position in the Middle East, but it would not significantly affect Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine

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New Eurasian Strategies Centre

Based in London and Washington, D.C., NEST Centre brings together the best expertise on Russia and the surrounding region. Its mission is to identify the forces shaping Russia’s long-term future, analyse their impact and develop strategies to bring about peaceful and positive development of the country

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Briefing Notes

A budget without a future: How the Russian economy stays afloat

Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade

Short Analysis

Sanctions alone will never stop Putin

If the West really wants to force Russia to stop the war, it needs to focus on military build-up – not just economic action

Research papers

To be a great power: Russia’s quest to destroy the post-1991 order in Europe

A clash between Russia’s revanchist vision of European order and the West’s sovereignty-based model is driving Europe’s security crisis, now intensified by a weakening US commitment 
Duncan Allan
Duncan Allan

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