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Briefing Notes

Victory Day without victory: How Putin’s core symbol is becoming a liability

Russia’s Victory Day unfolds amid war stalemate, security fears, and waning support, exposing tensions between Kremlin propaganda and battlefield reality

Briefing Notes

Deadlock in the Russia-Ukraine war: Back to negotiations

Neither Russia nor Ukraine is showing readiness to halt the war and resume the peace process. However, the dynamics of the conflict suggest that they will most likely return to the negotiating table in the near future

Short Analysis

Rising frustration: What Russians think about internet restrictions

Russians face widening internet shutdowns and controls, as security measures strain daily life, reshape digital habits, and fuel quiet public frustration.

Briefing Notes

High-level discussion of Russia’s economic problems is taking place for a reason

Putin spotlights economic decline as elections near, fueling elite tensions, pressure on government, and rising influence of security services

Short Analysis

Hidden reserves, deferred budget reductions, and another key rate cut

The Russian economy is gradually losing resilience and drawing down its reserves. The war in the Persian Gulf provides the Kremlin with temporary relief, but does not resolve underlying problems

Short Analysis

The Orbán International: How Moscow, Mar-a-Lago, and European nationalists built a shared reality

Orbán stands at the centre of a transnational alliance that casts him as both defender and disruptor of the European order, with Hungary’s election set to test the strength of that project

Short Analysis

Worse than drones: Russians react acutely to blocking and shutdowns, and resentment is growing

Internet shutdowns and messaging app bans have become one of the most sensitive pressure points in Russia, contributing to a gradual decline in support for the authorities

Briefing Notes

Loyalty, not money: Why Putin seeks ‘voluntary contributions’ from big business for the war against Ukraine

Putin’s call for ‘voluntary’ business contributions is less about funding the war and more about reaffirming elite loyalty in an increasingly coercive system

Briefing Notes

Victory Day without victory: How Putin’s core symbol is becoming a liability

Russia’s Victory Day unfolds amid war stalemate, security fears, and waning support, exposing tensions between Kremlin propaganda and battlefield reality

Briefing Notes

Deadlock in the Russia-Ukraine war: Back to negotiations

Neither Russia nor Ukraine is showing readiness to halt the war and resume the peace process. However, the dynamics of the conflict suggest that they will most likely return to the negotiating table in the near future

Short Analysis

Rising frustration: What Russians think about internet restrictions

Russians face widening internet shutdowns and controls, as security measures strain daily life, reshape digital habits, and fuel quiet public frustration.

Briefing Notes

High-level discussion of Russia’s economic problems is taking place for a reason

Putin spotlights economic decline as elections near, fueling elite tensions, pressure on government, and rising influence of security services

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New Eurasian Strategies Centre
Based in London and Washington, D.C., NEST Centre brings together the best expertise on Russia and the surrounding region. Its mission is to identify the forces shaping Russia’s long-term future, analyse their impact and develop strategies to bring about peaceful and positive development of the country 

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Short Analysis

Putin should worry about the Trump-Xi relationship

For Russia, the implications of a U.S.-China rapprochement – even if based on convenience rather than conviction – are profound.

Briefing Notes

A budget without a future: How the Russian economy stays afloat

Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade

Reports

Marriage without love: The Sino-Russian partnership and what it means for the world

The main risk for the West is Russia’s growing structural dependence on China, not the formation of a formal alliance 
Bobo LoJohn LoughSergey AleksashenkoSergei MedvedevAleksei Chigadaev
Bobo Lo, John Lough, Sergey Aleksashenko, Sergei Medvedev, Aleksei Chigadaev

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