Summer holiday disruption caused by Ukrainian strikes is bringing the war closer to ordinary Russians, threatening public support for Putin and exposing the costs of a prolonged conflict
Washington is finally giving Moscow what it long wanted – too late to turn into an advantage
Russia’s next move in Ukraine may be escalation—through intensified strikes, pressure on Europe, and renewed nuclear threats—as Putin seeks a path to claim victory
Nuclear drills in Belarus show how the Kremlin blends intimidation, escalation and coercion in its war strategy
Russia and Ukraine appear to be escalating the pressure in order to improve their positions ahead of a possible return to peace talks
Neither Russia nor Ukraine is showing readiness to halt the war and resume the peace process. However, the dynamics of the conflict suggest that they will most likely return to the negotiating table in the near future
A brief window of higher revenues and Western distraction may let Moscow increase pressure in Ukraine, but a decisive breakthrough remains unlikely
Most Russians do not hold strong views on the war: around half express nominal support, but the majority remain passive and defer to the state’s decisions
Moscow hopes to maximise economic and geopolitical gains from the Iran crisis while avoiding the risks of a prolonged conflict
After four years of war, Russia has hardened into a more personalist and repressive system, adjusted its economy to prolonged confrontation, and signalled readiness for a sustained standoff with the West
Ahead of the Geneva talks, Russia maintains its position and continues infrastructure strikes, suggesting that negotiations will remain stalled unless battlefield dynamics or external pressure significantly alter the parties’ calculations
The main risk for the West is Russia’s growing structural dependence on China, not the formation of a formal alliance
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