Neither Russia nor Ukraine is showing readiness to halt the war and resume the peace process. However, the dynamics of the conflict suggest that they will most likely return to the negotiating table in the near future
A brief window of higher revenues and Western distraction may let Moscow increase pressure in Ukraine, but a decisive breakthrough remains unlikely
Most Russians do not hold strong views on the war: around half express nominal support, but the majority remain passive and defer to the state’s decisions
Moscow hopes to maximise economic and geopolitical gains from the Iran crisis while avoiding the risks of a prolonged conflict
After four years of war, Russia has hardened into a more personalist and repressive system, adjusted its economy to prolonged confrontation, and signalled readiness for a sustained standoff with the West
Ahead of the Geneva talks, Russia maintains its position and continues infrastructure strikes, suggesting that negotiations will remain stalled unless battlefield dynamics or external pressure significantly alter the parties’ calculations
The main risk for the West is Russia’s growing structural dependence on China, not the formation of a formal alliance
The US capture of Maduro exposes Russia’s limited power, while normalising a force-based world order the Kremlin can exploit to legitimise its war against Ukraine
Putin’s 2025 Direct Line makes clear that Russia is being locked into a present defined by war, economic constraint, and permanent confrontation with the West, with no vision for the future
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
A clash between Russia’s revanchist vision of European order and the West’s sovereignty-based model is driving Europe’s security crisis, now intensified by a weakening US commitment
A settlement on Russia’s terms would entrench Moscow’s gains, destabilise Ukraine, and undermine the foundations of Europe’s security order
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