The Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric blurs the line between deterrence and war, making escalation unlikely but entirely possible
As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing
Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace
Since 2022, the Kremlin has cast the UK as enemy number one – reviving Anglophobia and targeting Britain across propaganda, culture, and cyber
Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade
New EU sanctions against Moscow are unlikely to be effective, with other measures seen as necessary to weaken Putin
Russia’s economy is stagnating but not collapsing: the budget deficit is growing, yet it can still be covered
Russia is seeking to influence the elections in Moldova through disinformation, bribery, and provocations, using local proxies to weaken pro-European forces
If the West really wants to force Russia to stop the war, it needs to focus on military build-up — not just economic action
Russia is testing NATO’s defences through drone incursions and hybrid tactics, seeking to limit support for Ukraine and reshape Europe’s political landscape
Following the failed Alaska summit, Moscow ramps up nuclear signalling and seeks to pressure the US into pushing Kyiv to make concessions
Putin seeks to secure the Donbas and limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, yet military shortfalls and shifting public opinion leave the Kremlin with few strategic options
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