Russia’s first national parliamentary elections since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine will take place in September this year.
Repression in Russia is no longer a response to dissent, but a core mechanism of governance, disciplining society and elites while preparing the way for the Putin regime to assume a still more authoritarian form.
The arrest of Ilya Traber signals that even Putin's oldest allies are no longer immune if their loyalty to the war effort is in doubt
Russia's September State Duma elections will test the Kremlin's ability to manage elite loyalty and political stability amid war, economic strain, and growing FSB influence
The Kremlin is replacing underperforming regional leaders with military veterans and officials from occupied territories as it prepares for a prolonged war
The Putin regime remains resilient, but mounting economic, elite, and social pressures could over time begin to reinforce one another in destabilising ways
Putin spotlights economic decline as elections near, fueling elite tensions, pressure on government, and rising influence of security services
Putin’s call for 'voluntary' business contributions is less about funding the war and more about reaffirming elite loyalty in an increasingly coercive system
The 2026 elections will not change Russia’s political course, but will complete the current reshaping of the regime and may increase its exposure to latent public dissatisfaction
Igor Krasnov’s appointment to the Supreme Court reflects the Kremlin’s effort to dismantle judicial autonomy and consolidate even tighter central control
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
Russia’s 2024–2025 reshuffle marks the start of a managed transition: Putin retains control while delegating routine governance to the State Council
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