Russia’s next move in Ukraine may be escalation—through intensified strikes, pressure on Europe, and renewed nuclear threats—as Putin seeks a path to claim victory
The Putin regime remains resilient, but mounting economic, elite, and social pressures could over time begin to reinforce one another in destabilising ways
Nuclear drills in Belarus show how the Kremlin blends intimidation, escalation and coercion in its war strategy
Russia’s Victory Day unfolds amid war stalemate, security fears, and waning support, exposing tensions between Kremlin propaganda and battlefield reality
A brief window of higher revenues and Western distraction may let Moscow increase pressure in Ukraine, but a decisive breakthrough remains unlikely
Examining the Trump Road initiative in the South Caucasus: infrastructure, sovereignty, great-power mediation, and the limits of externally driven peace
Despite talk of strategic partnership, mistrust defines Iran–Russia ties, with support limited and shaped by doubt, history, and regional crises
With New START expired, Moscow is signalling arms-race readiness—but in reality is seeking to freeze the current nuclear balance and slow US modernisation
The US capture of Maduro exposes Russia’s limited power, while normalising a force-based world order the Kremlin can exploit to legitimise its war against Ukraine
A clash between Russia’s revanchist vision of European order and the West’s sovereignty-based model is driving Europe’s security crisis, now intensified by a weakening US commitment
The Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric blurs the line between deterrence and war, making escalation unlikely but entirely possible
Since 2022, the Kremlin has cast the UK as enemy number one – reviving Anglophobia and targeting Britain across propaganda, culture, and cyber
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