Washington is finally giving Moscow what it long wanted – too late to turn into an advantage
Russia has progressively locked Belarus into political, economic, and military dependence, but unless circumstances change, formal annexation remains unlikely
Nuclear drills in Belarus show how the Kremlin blends intimidation, escalation and coercion in its war strategy
Péter Magyar’s victory weakens the Kremlin’s influence in the EU, but does not guarantee that Hungary will break completely either with Orbán’s legacy or with Russian influence
Russia and Ukraine appear to be escalating the pressure in order to improve their positions ahead of a possible return to peace talks
Neither Russia nor Ukraine is showing readiness to halt the war and resume the peace process. However, the dynamics of the conflict suggest that they will most likely return to the negotiating table in the near future
Russia is not yet intervening in Armenia’s elections on behalf of any particular candidate, but it is exploiting the country’s economic dependence to prevent it from growing closer to the West
Orbán stands at the centre of a transnational alliance that casts him as both defender and disruptor of the European order, with Hungary’s election set to test the strength of that project
Russia positions itself as a potential intermediary in the Iran war to convert limited leverage in the Middle East into bargaining power over Ukraine
Russia escalates rhetoric and pressure on Europe, leveraging the Iran conflict to influence Ukraine negotiations and challenge Western unity
Moscow hopes to maximise economic and geopolitical gains from the Iran crisis while avoiding the risks of a prolonged conflict
Russia is carefully balancing its Middle East relationships and avoiding confrontation with the US, calculating that a prolonged crisis could benefit Moscow by diverting Western focus from Ukraine and boosting oil revenues
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