Neither Russia nor Ukraine is showing readiness to halt the war and resume the peace process. However, the dynamics of the conflict suggest that they will most likely return to the negotiating table in the near future
Russia is not yet intervening in Armenia’s elections on behalf of any particular candidate, but it is exploiting the country’s economic dependence to prevent it from growing closer to the West
Orbán stands at the centre of a transnational alliance that casts him as both defender and disruptor of the European order, with Hungary’s election set to test the strength of that project
Russia positions itself as a potential intermediary in the Iran war to convert limited leverage in the Middle East into bargaining power over Ukraine
Russia escalates rhetoric and pressure on Europe, leveraging the Iran conflict to influence Ukraine negotiations and challenge Western unity
Moscow hopes to maximise economic and geopolitical gains from the Iran crisis while avoiding the risks of a prolonged conflict
Russia is carefully balancing its Middle East relationships and avoiding confrontation with the US, calculating that a prolonged crisis could benefit Moscow by diverting Western focus from Ukraine and boosting oil revenues
Russian discourse on MSC 2026 casts the conference as a symbol of Europe’s strategic fragility and highlights evolving Kremlin narratives about the balance of power within the West
Examining the Trump Road initiative in the South Caucasus: infrastructure, sovereignty, great-power mediation, and the limits of externally driven peace
Ahead of the Geneva talks, Russia maintains its position and continues infrastructure strikes, suggesting that negotiations will remain stalled unless battlefield dynamics or external pressure significantly alter the parties’ calculations
For Russia, the implications of a U.S.-China rapprochement — even if based on convenience rather than conviction — are profound.
Despite talk of strategic partnership, mistrust defines Iran–Russia ties, with support limited and shaped by doubt, history, and regional crises
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