Russia can sustain current war spending, but limited innovation and sanctions risk long-term economic stagnation and widening technological gaps
Russia’s military overhaul is constrained by structural, economic, and demographic limits, reinforcing reliance on mass, firepower, and nuclear deterrence
Russia is reshaping its military using Soviet-era models, raising the risk of strategic stagnation and potential confrontation with NATO
Over the past year, Putin has tightened control, sidelined institutions, and deepened personal rule — while quietly preparing for generational change and confrontation with the West
Young and working-age men in Russia are dying at sharply elevated rates, especially in poorer regions. With official data increasingly restricted, indirect indicators offer a glimpse of the true scale of Russia’s wartime casualties
Russia’s efforts to achieve technological independence are running into practical limits, with key national projects falling behind due to sanctions, weak institutions, and lack of capacity
Recent Ukrainian drone strikes and rail sabotage in Russia have exposed vulnerabilities in the political system and triggered negative reactions among loyalists, posing a political challenge for the Kremlin
Russia’s wartime economy is slowing: civilian output is shrinking, inflation is rising, and China now dominates industrial imports. Growth limits are in sight
Victory Day has become a tool of mobilisation. The Kremlin now uses war memory to justify aggression and offer symbolic stability amid public anxiety
Three new governors in Russia signal a shift, gaining some autonomy but tied to patronal networks, as the Kremlin crafts an illusion of public influence
After two years of caution, Moscow has made significant personnel changes to improve governance and consolidate control
Russia’s war veterans are being positioned as a new elite, as the Kremlin seeks to merge military and civilian spheres through loyalty and wartime experience
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