As the Kremlin reopens the door to peace talks, a new threat emerges: its own war supporters may see compromise as betrayal
North Korea’s role in Russia’s war is limited militarily but rich in symbolism, offering strategic dividends to both regimes – and raising fresh risks for Beijing
The Kremlin sees US exit threats from Ukraine talks as a tactic, not a real risk – and may use them to boost its own position
Russia rejects a simple ceasefire – seeking a broader deal on European security – but may still compromise if the US offers firm strategic guarantees
Putin resists de-escalation in Ukraine, signalling distrust of Trump’s plan and betting on waning US support by mid-summer
Putin’s Murmansk speech signals a bid to reshape global order – reviving spheres of influence and sidelining universal norms
Black Sea talks yield an uneven outcome. While framed as mutual restraint, the arrangement strengthens Russia’s position without imposing meaningful limits on its actions
Putin seeks negotiations on his terms while using conflict to weaken the West. A ceasefire remains distant, but the Kremlin aims to maximise its leverage
Putin views a ceasefire as a tool for securing Western concessions. Moscow seeks to weaken Ukraine through negotiations while keeping the option of war open
Putin sees progress in Ukraine, but war strains mount. Labour and equipment shortages grow, while Russia leans on allies to sustain its military and economy
Turkey has been balancing between Moscow and Kyiv but now faces growing challenges. As tensions rise, will it maintain neutrality or reshape its regional role?
Russia’s maritime ambitions face setbacks as logistical and financial challenges hinder progress on key projects, such as the Northern Sea Route
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