Black Sea talks yield an uneven outcome. While framed as mutual restraint, the arrangement strengthens Russia’s position without imposing meaningful limits on its actions
Putin seeks negotiations on his terms while using conflict to weaken the West. A ceasefire remains distant, but the Kremlin aims to maximise its leverage
Putin views a ceasefire as a tool for securing Western concessions. Moscow seeks to weaken Ukraine through negotiations while keeping the option of war open
Putin sees progress in Ukraine, but war strains mount. Labour and equipment shortages grow, while Russia leans on allies to sustain its military and economy
Turkey has been balancing between Moscow and Kyiv but now faces growing challenges. As tensions rise, will it maintain neutrality or reshape its regional role?
Russia’s maritime ambitions face setbacks as logistical and financial challenges hinder progress on key projects, such as the Northern Sea Route
North Korea’s 10,000 troops in Ukraine mark a shift – raising questions in Seoul and quiet concern in Beijing
The US should prioritize strategic over tactical goals with Russia, fostering broad elite coalitions to reduce pro-China shifts and prepare for post-Putin era
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