Russia’s Victory Day unfolds amid war stalemate, security fears, and waning support, exposing tensions between Kremlin propaganda and battlefield reality
Neither Russia nor Ukraine is showing readiness to halt the war and resume the peace process. However, the dynamics of the conflict suggest that they will most likely return to the negotiating table in the near future
Russians face widening internet shutdowns and controls, as security measures strain daily life, reshape digital habits, and fuel quiet public frustration.
Putin spotlights economic decline as elections near, fueling elite tensions, pressure on government, and rising influence of security services
Russia is not yet intervening in Armenia’s elections on behalf of any particular candidate, but it is exploiting the country’s economic dependence to prevent it from growing closer to the West
The Russian economy is gradually losing resilience and drawing down its reserves. The war in the Persian Gulf provides the Kremlin with temporary relief, but does not resolve underlying problems
Orbán stands at the centre of a transnational alliance that casts him as both defender and disruptor of the European order, with Hungary’s election set to test the strength of that project
Internet shutdowns and messaging app bans have become one of the most sensitive pressure points in Russia, contributing to a gradual decline in support for the authorities
Putin’s call for 'voluntary' business contributions is less about funding the war and more about reaffirming elite loyalty in an increasingly coercive system
Russia positions itself as a potential intermediary in the Iran war to convert limited leverage in the Middle East into bargaining power over Ukraine
Russia escalates rhetoric and pressure on Europe, leveraging the Iran conflict to influence Ukraine negotiations and challenge Western unity
Russian media portray Europe’s leaders as divided, weak, and in decline, amplifying internal dissent and contradictions to undermine the perception of European unity and strength
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