Washington is finally giving Moscow what it long wanted – too late to turn into an advantage
China needs Russian gas, but not enough to make Power of Siberia 2 a priority
Russia has progressively locked Belarus into political, economic, and military dependence, but unless circumstances change, formal annexation remains unlikely
Russia’s next move in Ukraine may be escalation—through intensified strikes, pressure on Europe, and renewed nuclear threats—as Putin seeks a path to claim victory
The Putin regime remains resilient, but mounting economic, elite, and social pressures could over time begin to reinforce one another in destabilising ways
Nuclear drills in Belarus show how the Kremlin blends intimidation, escalation and coercion in its war strategy
Péter Magyar’s victory weakens the Kremlin’s influence in the EU, but does not guarantee that Hungary will break completely either with Orbán’s legacy or with Russian influence
Methodological changes at Russia’s main state pollsters have halted the fall in Putin’s approval ratings, even as broader indicators point to rising public dissatisfaction and declining optimism
Russia's 2026 deficit looks alarming on paper, but cheap debt and deep reserves leave the Kremlin with room to spend more, not less
Russia and Ukraine appear to be escalating the pressure in order to improve their positions ahead of a possible return to peace talks
Russia’s Victory Day unfolds amid war stalemate, security fears, and waning support, exposing tensions between Kremlin propaganda and battlefield reality
Neither Russia nor Ukraine is showing readiness to halt the war and resume the peace process. However, the dynamics of the conflict suggest that they will most likely return to the negotiating table in the near future
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