As the Kremlin reopens the door to peace talks, a new threat emerges: its own war supporters may see compromise as betrayal
Victory Day has become a tool of mobilisation. The Kremlin now uses war memory to justify aggression and offer symbolic stability amid public anxiety
North Korea’s role in Russia’s war is limited militarily but rich in symbolism, offering strategic dividends to both regimes – and raising fresh risks for Beijing
The Kremlin sees US exit threats from Ukraine talks as a tactic, not a real risk – and may use them to boost its own position
Russia rejects a simple ceasefire – seeking a broader deal on European security – but may still compromise if the US offers firm strategic guarantees
Putin resists de-escalation in Ukraine, signalling distrust of Trump’s plan and betting on waning US support by mid-summer
Putin’s Murmansk speech signals a bid to reshape global order – reviving spheres of influence and sidelining universal norms
Black Sea talks yield an uneven outcome. While framed as mutual restraint, the arrangement strengthens Russia’s position without imposing meaningful limits on its actions
Putin seeks negotiations on his terms while using conflict to weaken the West. A ceasefire remains distant, but the Kremlin aims to maximise its leverage
Putin views a ceasefire as a tool for securing Western concessions. Moscow seeks to weaken Ukraine through negotiations while keeping the option of war open
Putin’s army adapts tactically, but systemic flaws, heavy losses, poor morale, and reliance on foreign aid expose its failure to achieve strategic gains
Western sanctions against Russia have had mixed results, hitting finance and technology but failing to halt the war or isolate Russia due to global loopholes
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