Putin resists de-escalation in Ukraine, signalling distrust of Trump’s plan and betting on waning US support by mid-summer
Putin’s Murmansk speech signals a bid to reshape global order – reviving spheres of influence and sidelining universal norms
Black Sea talks yield an uneven outcome. While framed as mutual restraint, the arrangement strengthens Russia’s position without imposing meaningful limits on its actions
Putin seeks negotiations on his terms while using conflict to weaken the West. A ceasefire remains distant, but the Kremlin aims to maximise its leverage
Putin views a ceasefire as a tool for securing Western concessions. Moscow seeks to weaken Ukraine through negotiations while keeping the option of war open
Putin’s army adapts tactically, but systemic flaws, heavy losses, poor morale, and reliance on foreign aid expose its failure to achieve strategic gains
Western sanctions against Russia have had mixed results, hitting finance and technology but failing to halt the war or isolate Russia due to global loopholes
Putin’s reshuffles centralize power among loyalists, creating a royal court dynamic. His personal grip is strong but fragile, akin to Stalin’s rule
The US should prioritize strategic over tactical goals with Russia, fostering broad elite coalitions to reduce pro-China shifts and prepare for post-Putin era
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