While the Kremlin understands the strategic risks of direct conflict with NATO, it sees the Alliance’s current institutional and political fragmentation as an opportunity to intensify pressure by hybrid means
NATO pledges 5% GDP defence spend by 2035, sparking Kremlin fears of a widening military gap and fuelling Moscow’s bid to exploit Western divisions
Russia’s wartime economy is slowing: civilian output is shrinking, inflation is rising, and China now dominates industrial imports. Growth limits are in sight
Trump–Putin dialogue triggers a shift: Moscow and Kyiv drop irreconcilable ceasefire terms, paving the way for direct talks and a possible US–Russia summit
As the Kremlin reopens the door to peace talks, a new threat emerges: its own war supporters may see compromise as betrayal
The Kremlin sees US exit threats from Ukraine talks as a tactic, not a real risk – and may use them to boost its own position
Russia rejects a simple ceasefire – seeking a broader deal on European security – but may still compromise if the US offers firm strategic guarantees
Putin’s Murmansk speech signals a bid to reshape global order – reviving spheres of influence and sidelining universal norms
Putin sees progress in Ukraine, but war strains mount. Labour and equipment shortages grow, while Russia leans on allies to sustain its military and economy
Russia’s maritime ambitions face setbacks as logistical and financial challenges hinder progress on key projects, such as the Northern Sea Route
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