A clash between Russia’s revanchist vision of European order and the West’s sovereignty-based model is driving Europe’s security crisis, now intensified by a weakening US commitment
Russia’s foreign policy is in crisis, weakened by war, ageing leadership, and a steady loss of regional influence
Putin’s Valdai speech framed Russia as a global power ready for a long confrontation with the West in a ‘post-global’ era
New EU sanctions against Moscow are unlikely to be effective, with other measures seen as necessary to weaken Putin
Russia is seeking to influence the elections in Moldova through disinformation, bribery, and provocations, using local proxies to weaken pro-European forces
If the West really wants to force Russia to stop the war, it needs to focus on military build-up — not just economic action
Russia is testing NATO’s defences through drone incursions and hybrid tactics, seeking to limit support for Ukraine and reshape Europe’s political landscape
While the Kremlin understands the strategic risks of direct conflict with NATO, it sees the Alliance’s current institutional and political fragmentation as an opportunity to intensify pressure by hybrid means
NATO pledges 5% GDP defence spend by 2035, sparking Kremlin fears of a widening military gap and fuelling Moscow’s bid to exploit Western divisions
Russia’s wartime economy is slowing: civilian output is shrinking, inflation is rising, and China now dominates industrial imports. Growth limits are in sight
Trump–Putin dialogue triggers a shift: Moscow and Kyiv drop irreconcilable ceasefire terms, paving the way for direct talks and a possible US–Russia summit
As the Kremlin reopens the door to peace talks, a new threat emerges: its own war supporters may see compromise as betrayal
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