While the Kremlin understands the strategic risks of direct conflict with NATO, it sees the Alliance’s current institutional and political fragmentation as an opportunity to intensify pressure by hybrid means
Post-war Russia may face social unrest, veteran tensions, and renewed repression – unless the Kremlin channels aggression into a new conflict
Russia can sustain current war spending, but limited innovation and sanctions risk long-term economic stagnation and widening technological gaps
Russia’s military overhaul is constrained by structural, economic, and demographic limits, reinforcing reliance on mass, firepower, and nuclear deterrence
Russia is reshaping its military using Soviet-era models, raising the risk of strategic stagnation and potential confrontation with NATO
Over the past year, Putin has tightened control, sidelined institutions, and deepened personal rule — while quietly preparing for generational change and confrontation with the West
NATO pledges 5% GDP defence spend by 2035, sparking Kremlin fears of a widening military gap and fuelling Moscow’s bid to exploit Western divisions
Mikhail Kasyanov, former Russian Prime Minister, speaks on Putin’s Ukraine strategy, war finances, and Russia’s shifting prospects
Russia positions itself as a mediator in the Iran–Israel conflict, but limited leverage and deep mistrust expose the fragility of its regional influence
Young and working-age men in Russia are dying at sharply elevated rates, especially in poorer regions. With official data increasingly restricted, indirect indicators offer a glimpse of the true scale of Russia’s wartime casualties
Russia’s efforts to achieve technological independence are running into practical limits, with key national projects falling behind due to sanctions, weak institutions, and lack of capacity
Recent Ukrainian drone strikes and rail sabotage in Russia have exposed vulnerabilities in the political system and triggered negative reactions among loyalists, posing a political challenge for the Kremlin
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