Moscow hopes to maximise economic and geopolitical gains from the Iran crisis while avoiding the risks of a prolonged conflict
The Russian authorities are seeking sources of funding for the growing budget deficit, while preparing to tighten fiscal discipline and mobilise resources
After four years of war, Russia has hardened into a more personalist and repressive system, adjusted its economy to prolonged confrontation, and signalled readiness for a sustained standoff with the West
The key rate cut comes amid stagnation in the civilian economy and mounting fiscal risks from a stronger rouble and weaker oil revenues
Production, exports and revenues are declining; sanctions mostly changed how Russia sells, not how much it sells
The main risk for the West is Russia’s growing structural dependence on China, not the formation of a formal alliance
Russia enters 2026 with inflation under control but growth exhausted: a war-driven economy, fiscal constraints, and sanctions leave little room for recovery and heighten the risk of recession
Putin’s 2025 Direct Line makes clear that Russia is being locked into a present defined by war, economic constraint, and permanent confrontation with the West, with no vision for the future
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
Russia enters 2026 with slowing growth, rising fiscal strains, and a weakening industrial base, increasing the likelihood of a renewed budget shock
Russia’s economy has adapted to war but stalled. Fiscal strength masks decline as innovation and talent drain away – giving way to stagnation
As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing
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