Russia enters 2026 with inflation under control but growth exhausted: a war-driven economy, fiscal constraints, and sanctions leave little room for recovery and heighten the risk of recession
Putin’s 2025 Direct Line makes clear that Russia is being locked into a present defined by war, economic constraint, and permanent confrontation with the West, with no vision for the future
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
Russia enters 2026 with slowing growth, rising fiscal strains, and a weakening industrial base, increasing the likelihood of a renewed budget shock
Russia’s economy has adapted to war but stalled. Fiscal strength masks decline as innovation and talent drain away – giving way to stagnation
As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing
Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade
New EU sanctions against Moscow are unlikely to be effective, with other measures seen as necessary to weaken Putin
Russia’s economy is stagnating but not collapsing: the budget deficit is growing, yet it can still be covered
Russia’s Far East remains key to its Eastern strategy — but faces demographic decline, weak returns, and dependence on China despite major state investment
The Bank of Russia’s new monetary policy draft projects stable inflation and modest growth, but fiscal uncertainty, exchange rate ignorance, and political risks cast doubt on its realism
Russia faces slowing growth as high rates curb demand; rouble gains wane, imports rise, and reliance on military output risks deeper recession
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