Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace
Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed it to the sidelines of Middle Eastern diplomacy, reducing its role to symbolic gestures and cautious messaging
Putin’s Valdai speech framed Russia as a global power ready for a long confrontation with the West in a ‘post-global’ era
New EU sanctions against Moscow are unlikely to be effective, with other measures seen as necessary to weaken Putin
If the West really wants to force Russia to stop the war, it needs to focus on military build-up — not just economic action
Following the failed Alaska summit, Moscow ramps up nuclear signalling and seeks to pressure the US into pushing Kyiv to make concessions
Putin seeks to secure the Donbas and limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, yet military shortfalls and shifting public opinion leave the Kremlin with few strategic options
Putin approaches the Alaska talks convinced the balance favours him, yet signalling readiness for tactical concessions to cement control of occupied territories and seek sanctions relief
Donald Trump is betting on a deal over Ukrainian land – but Russia's leader has far bigger plans
Moscow sees Trump’s vulnerability as a chance to explore a settlement in Ukraine while maintaining strategic advantage
While the Kremlin understands the strategic risks of direct conflict with NATO, it sees the Alliance’s current institutional and political fragmentation as an opportunity to intensify pressure by hybrid means
Trump’s 50-day ultimatum is seen in Moscow not as a threat, but as a window of opportunity: a chance to press ahead with the summer offensive before new sanctions return to the table
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