Following the failed Alaska summit, Moscow ramps up nuclear signalling and seeks to pressure the US into pushing Kyiv to make concessions
Putin seeks to secure the Donbas and limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, yet military shortfalls and shifting public opinion leave the Kremlin with few strategic options
Putin approaches the Alaska talks convinced the balance favours him, yet signalling readiness for tactical concessions to cement control of occupied territories and seek sanctions relief
Donald Trump is betting on a deal over Ukrainian land – but Russia's leader has far bigger plans
Moscow sees Trump’s vulnerability as a chance to explore a settlement in Ukraine while maintaining strategic advantage
While the Kremlin understands the strategic risks of direct conflict with NATO, it sees the Alliance’s current institutional and political fragmentation as an opportunity to intensify pressure by hybrid means
Trump’s 50-day ultimatum is seen in Moscow not as a threat, but as a window of opportunity: a chance to press ahead with the summer offensive before new sanctions return to the table
The flexible, albeit unequal Sino-Russian partnership endures, defying US hopes of a split, as Trump-era turmoil deepens the two countries’ shared interest
NATO pledges 5% GDP defence spend by 2035, sparking Kremlin fears of a widening military gap and fuelling Moscow’s bid to exploit Western divisions
Russia positions itself as a mediator in the Iran–Israel conflict, but limited leverage and deep mistrust expose the fragility of its regional influence
Russia’s wartime economy is slowing: civilian output is shrinking, inflation is rising, and China now dominates industrial imports. Growth limits are in sight
Trump–Putin dialogue triggers a shift: Moscow and Kyiv drop irreconcilable ceasefire terms, paving the way for direct talks and a possible US–Russia summit
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