US–Europe tensions over Greenland are weakening transatlantic unity, expanding Russia’s room for manoeuvre, while simultaneously exposing the strategic and economic limits of the Kremlin’s ambitions, particularly in the Arctic
The fall of the Iranian regime would be a political blow for Moscow, further weakening its position in the Middle East, but it would not significantly affect Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine
The US capture of Maduro exposes Russia’s limited power, while normalising a force-based world order the Kremlin can exploit to legitimise its war against Ukraine
A clash between Russia’s revanchist vision of European order and the West’s sovereignty-based model is driving Europe’s security crisis, now intensified by a weakening US commitment
A settlement on Russia’s terms would entrench Moscow’s gains, destabilise Ukraine, and undermine the foundations of Europe’s security order
Russia’s foreign policy is in crisis, weakened by war, ageing leadership, and a steady loss of regional influence
The Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric blurs the line between deterrence and war, making escalation unlikely but entirely possible
As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing
Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace
Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed it to the sidelines of Middle Eastern diplomacy, reducing its role to symbolic gestures and cautious messaging
Putin’s Valdai speech framed Russia as a global power ready for a long confrontation with the West in a ‘post-global’ era
New EU sanctions against Moscow are unlikely to be effective, with other measures seen as necessary to weaken Putin
Contact Us
[email protected]
