The Kremlin sees US exit threats from Ukraine talks as a tactic, not a real risk – and may use them to boost its own position
Russia rejects a simple ceasefire – seeking a broader deal on European security – but may still compromise if the US offers firm strategic guarantees
Putin’s Murmansk speech signals a bid to reshape global order – reviving spheres of influence and sidelining universal norms
Putin seeks negotiations on his terms while using conflict to weaken the West. A ceasefire remains distant, but the Kremlin aims to maximise its leverage
Putin views a ceasefire as a tool for securing Western concessions. Moscow seeks to weaken Ukraine through negotiations while keeping the option of war open
Putin sees progress in Ukraine, but war strains mount. Labour and equipment shortages grow, while Russia leans on allies to sustain its military and economy
Russia’s maritime ambitions face setbacks as logistical and financial challenges hinder progress on key projects, such as the Northern Sea Route
Western sanctions against Russia have had mixed results, hitting finance and technology but failing to halt the war or isolate Russia due to global loopholes
The US should prioritize strategic over tactical goals with Russia, fostering broad elite coalitions to reduce pro-China shifts and prepare for post-Putin era
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