Russia rejects a simple ceasefire – seeking a broader deal on European security – but may still compromise if the US offers firm strategic guarantees
Putin resists de-escalation in Ukraine, signalling distrust of Trump’s plan and betting on waning US support by mid-summer
Putin’s Murmansk speech signals a bid to reshape global order – reviving spheres of influence and sidelining universal norms
Black Sea talks yield an uneven outcome. While framed as mutual restraint, the arrangement strengthens Russia’s position without imposing meaningful limits on its actions
Putin seeks negotiations on his terms while using conflict to weaken the West. A ceasefire remains distant, but the Kremlin aims to maximise its leverage
Putin views a ceasefire as a tool for securing Western concessions. Moscow seeks to weaken Ukraine through negotiations while keeping the option of war open
Putin sees progress in Ukraine, but war strains mount. Labour and equipment shortages grow, while Russia leans on allies to sustain its military and economy
Turkey has been balancing between Moscow and Kyiv but now faces growing challenges. As tensions rise, will it maintain neutrality or reshape its regional role?
North Korea’s 10,000 troops in Ukraine mark a shift – raising questions in Seoul and quiet concern in Beijing
Russia’s war veterans are being positioned as a new elite, as the Kremlin seeks to merge military and civilian spheres through loyalty and wartime experience
Putin’s army adapts tactically, but systemic flaws, heavy losses, poor morale, and reliance on foreign aid expose its failure to achieve strategic gains
Putin decrees to raise troop numbers after heavy losses and a Ukrainian incursion in Kursk
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