Putin resists de-escalation in Ukraine, signalling distrust of Trump’s plan and betting on waning US support by mid-summer
Putin’s Murmansk speech signals a bid to reshape global order – reviving spheres of influence and sidelining universal norms
Black Sea talks yield an uneven outcome. While framed as mutual restraint, the arrangement strengthens Russia’s position without imposing meaningful limits on its actions
Putin seeks negotiations on his terms while using conflict to weaken the West. A ceasefire remains distant, but the Kremlin aims to maximise its leverage
Putin views a ceasefire as a tool for securing Western concessions. Moscow seeks to weaken Ukraine through negotiations while keeping the option of war open
Three new governors in Russia signal a shift, gaining some autonomy but tied to patronal networks, as the Kremlin crafts an illusion of public influence
Putin sees progress in Ukraine, but war strains mount. Labour and equipment shortages grow, while Russia leans on allies to sustain its military and economy
Turkey has been balancing between Moscow and Kyiv but now faces growing challenges. As tensions rise, will it maintain neutrality or reshape its regional role?
Russia’s maritime ambitions face setbacks as logistical and financial challenges hinder progress on key projects, such as the Northern Sea Route
After two years of caution, Moscow has made significant personnel changes to improve governance and consolidate control
North Korea’s 10,000 troops in Ukraine mark a shift – raising questions in Seoul and quiet concern in Beijing
Russia’s war veterans are being positioned as a new elite, as the Kremlin seeks to merge military and civilian spheres through loyalty and wartime experience
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