The US capture of Maduro exposes Russia’s limited power, while normalising a force-based world order the Kremlin can exploit to legitimise its war against Ukraine
Russia enters 2026 with inflation under control but growth exhausted: a war-driven economy, fiscal constraints, and sanctions leave little room for recovery and heighten the risk of recession
Putin’s 2025 Direct Line makes clear that Russia is being locked into a present defined by war, economic constraint, and permanent confrontation with the West, with no vision for the future
Igor Krasnov’s appointment to the Supreme Court reflects the Kremlin’s effort to dismantle judicial autonomy and consolidate even tighter central control
The Kremlin quietly endorsed Lukashenka’s limited deal with Washington, seeing it not as a threat to its control over Belarus, but as a test case for US sanctions relief and a potential wedge in transatlantic unity
Russia’s ties with India endure despite Western pressure, highlighting the limits of US leverage and Moscow’s continued room for manoeuvre
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
Putin’s 2012 decrees have triggered widespread manipulation of cause-of-death data ever since, with cardiovascular deaths re-coded into other categories to meet political targets
A clash between Russia’s revanchist vision of European order and the West’s sovereignty-based model is driving Europe’s security crisis, now intensified by a weakening US commitment
A settlement on Russia’s terms would entrench Moscow’s gains, destabilise Ukraine, and undermine the foundations of Europe’s security order
Russia enters 2026 with slowing growth, rising fiscal strains, and a weakening industrial base, increasing the likelihood of a renewed budget shock
Russia’s foreign policy is in crisis, weakened by war, ageing leadership, and a steady loss of regional influence
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