The Bank of Russia’s new monetary policy draft projects stable inflation and modest growth, but fiscal uncertainty, exchange rate ignorance, and political risks cast doubt on its realism
Donald Trump is betting on a deal over Ukrainian land – but Russia's leader has far bigger plans
Russia faces slowing growth as high rates curb demand; rouble gains wane, imports rise, and reliance on military output risks deeper recession
Post-war Russia may face social unrest, veteran tensions, and renewed repression – unless the Kremlin channels aggression into a new conflict
Russia can sustain current war spending, but limited innovation and sanctions risk long-term economic stagnation and widening technological gaps
Russia’s military overhaul is constrained by structural, economic, and demographic limits, reinforcing reliance on mass, firepower, and nuclear deterrence
Russia is reshaping its military using Soviet-era models, raising the risk of strategic stagnation and potential confrontation with NATO
Young and working-age men in Russia are dying at sharply elevated rates, especially in poorer regions. With official data increasingly restricted, indirect indicators offer a glimpse of the true scale of Russia’s wartime casualties
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