For the first time since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Russians’ negative expectations outweigh positive ones regarding both their own and the country’s future, according to surveys by the Levada Centre. The share of respondents who expect the economy to deteriorate has risen to around 35 per cent, whereas earlier surveys showed cautious optimism. The consumer sentiment index has recorded more negative than positive assessments for the first time since the military mobilisation in 2022. According to the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), anxiety among Russians has been increasing since April, and by July it had become the dominant public mood. These changes can be seen as a direct consequence of the war increasingly disrupting everyday life across the country.
The marked decline in public optimism reflects a reaction to the large-scale fuel crisis caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s largest oil refineries, which has affected around 50 million people, or 35 per cent of the country’s population. Fuel shortages have led to various restrictions on petrol sales across the country, while queues at filling stations have lasted for hours.
Surveys have yet to capture Russians’ reaction to the drone strikes on warehouses belonging to Wildberries, Russia’s largest online marketplace, which began in mid-July. Around ten of the company’s major logistical hubs were hit. Ukraine’s military and economic rationale for targeting Wildberries is that its warehouses handle dual-use and military-related goods. However, the main effect is likely to be social and psychological. Around 800,000 sellers use Wildberries, and the platform accounts for more than 52 per cent of all online orders in Russia. Videos of entrepreneurs who say they have lost their businesses as a result of the strikes have gone viral on social media, while images of huge columns of smoke rising from burning warehouses have been widely shared.
Amid strict censorship and the risk of prosecution for anti-war social media posts, Wildberries sellers have generally expressed grief and anger without making political statements. It is therefore difficult to determine whether the Ukrainian strikes will produce a rally-round-the-regime effect within the business community or, conversely, contribute to the growth of anti-war sentiment. In any case, these developments are increasing overall public anxiety and may be reflected in future survey results.
The Kremlin has responded to these shifts in public opinion by increasing the pressure on its opponents, particularly on prominent exiles who are capable of channelling Russians’ discontent. In its final session before the summer recess, the State Duma rushed through a new package of repressive laws, stripping exiled dissidents of a range of rights. Russians convicted in absentia will no longer be able to obtain new international passports or carry out property transactions, and will lose access to digital government services and banking services.
During the session, the Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin described Russians who have left the country as ‘degenerates and traitors to the motherland’. The stigmatisation of a particular group can help to shift the blame for the government’s failures and serve as an instrument of social discipline – an example of what awaits those deemed disloyal to the Kremlin.
The most likely consequences of declining public optimism will not be electoral, since election outcomes are tightly controlled, but economic and behavioural. Amid growing rumours of further military mobilisation, another wave of emigration by working-age Russians is likely, alongside an accelerated outflow of capital and a gradual erosion of labour market participation and business activity. This increases the risk of impulsive decisions and mistakes by the Kremlin. Concerned by the loss of people and capital, the authorities may resort to drastic measures, such as imposing restrictions on emigration or tightening currency controls. How the United States and European countries react will also be significant. Western banking and visa restrictions that target people seeking to leave Russia would help the regime to stabilise the situation.
