Senior Research Fellow, Head of Economics
Neither Russia nor Ukraine is showing readiness to halt the war and resume the peace process. However, the dynamics of the conflict suggest that they will most likely return to the negotiating table in the near future
Putin spotlights economic decline as elections near, fueling elite tensions, pressure on government, and rising influence of security services
Russia is not yet intervening in Armenia’s elections on behalf of any particular candidate, but it is exploiting the country’s economic dependence to prevent it from growing closer to the West
Putin’s call for 'voluntary' business contributions is less about funding the war and more about reaffirming elite loyalty in an increasingly coercive system
Russia escalates rhetoric and pressure on Europe, leveraging the Iran conflict to influence Ukraine negotiations and challenge Western unity
A brief window of higher revenues and Western distraction may let Moscow increase pressure in Ukraine, but a decisive breakthrough remains unlikely
Moscow hopes to maximise economic and geopolitical gains from the Iran crisis while avoiding the risks of a prolonged conflict
Russia is carefully balancing its Middle East relationships and avoiding confrontation with the US, calculating that a prolonged crisis could benefit Moscow by diverting Western focus from Ukraine and boosting oil revenues
After four years of war, Russia has hardened into a more personalist and repressive system, adjusted its economy to prolonged confrontation, and signalled readiness for a sustained standoff with the West
Russian discourse on MSC 2026 casts the conference as a symbol of Europe’s strategic fragility and highlights evolving Kremlin narratives about the balance of power within the West
Ahead of the Geneva talks, Russia maintains its position and continues infrastructure strikes, suggesting that negotiations will remain stalled unless battlefield dynamics or external pressure significantly alter the parties’ calculations
With New START expired, Moscow is signalling arms-race readiness—but in reality is seeking to freeze the current nuclear balance and slow US modernisation
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