A clash between Russia’s revanchist vision of European order and the West’s sovereignty-based model is driving Europe’s security crisis, now intensified by a weakening US commitment
A settlement on Russia’s terms would entrench Moscow’s gains, destabilise Ukraine, and undermine the foundations of Europe’s security order
Russia’s foreign policy is in crisis, weakened by war, ageing leadership, and a steady loss of regional influence
The Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric blurs the line between deterrence and war, making escalation unlikely but entirely possible
As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing
Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace
Since 2022, the Kremlin has cast the UK as enemy number one – reviving Anglophobia and targeting Britain across propaganda, culture, and cyber
Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade
New EU sanctions against Moscow are unlikely to be effective, with other measures seen as necessary to weaken Putin
Russia’s economy is stagnating but not collapsing: the budget deficit is growing, yet it can still be covered
Russia is seeking to influence the elections in Moldova through disinformation, bribery, and provocations, using local proxies to weaken pro-European forces
If the West really wants to force Russia to stop the war, it needs to focus on military build-up — not just economic action
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