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Trump’s ticking clock: How Putin will seek to capitalise on the Republicans’ defeat

9 November 2026

Trump’s ticking clock: How Putin will seek to capitalise on the Republicans’ defeat

9 November 2026

3 minutes

The ‘blue wave’ in the US midterm elections has started the clock ticking. Donald Trump has less than two months to act before the Democrats take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Kremlin will be counting on Trump’s desire to announce a foreign policy success before then to make Washington more receptive to Russian proposals for a new European security arrangement as a pre-condition for ending its war against Ukraine.

Two days after the elections, Trump met Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian president’s special envoy, who had travelled to the White House to help organise talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi. After the meeting, Trump spoke of a ‘big, beautiful deal’ on Ukraine that ‘could involve the whole of Europe’. His son-in-law and peace envoy, Jared Kushner, later said that talks on the war in Ukraine should be broadened to include discussions on a ‘new European security architecture’.

Both statements came ahead of the US-led peace talks scheduled for 10–11 November in Abu Dhabi. The Kremlin will have noted with satisfaction that Western media coverage is suggesting that the remarks could signal a move to revive Putin’s December 2021 demands to limit NATO’s presence and activities in eastern Europe.

‘For Moscow, a settlement in Ukraine is only part of a wider agenda. The Kremlin wants not just to end the war on favourable terms, but also to reshape Europe’s security system. So Russia may seek to tie negotiations over Ukraine to broader questions about the US military presence in Europe, NATO enlargement, and limits on the deployment of weapons.’

Katia Glod

Deputy Head of Foreign Policy

In the hope of obtaining concessions on European security, Moscow could once again offer Trump help in the Middle East. This could include mediating between the US and Iran. Moscow has increased the intensity of high-level contacts with Tehran in recent weeks.

It is far from clear whether Moscow has any real leverage over Tehran. But the Kremlin may be betting that since Trump is eager to secure a foreign policy success before the new Congress takes office, he will agree to a deal in return for commitments that Russia may not be able to deliver. If Putin fails to secure significant concessions from Washington in the next two months, Russia is likely to stick to its strategy of playing for time while maintaining pressure on Kyiv and its European allies. Moscow will continue to target Ukraine’s infrastructure and threaten European governments with further ‘hybrid ‘operations, hoping to force them to accept Russia’s terms for ending the war.

‘There is no reason for Putin to start serious peace talks before the end of the winter. He is likely to continue his slow tango with Trump, hoping that the White House will put more pressure on both the Ukrainians and the Europeans to make compromises. Meanwhile, he will subject Ukraine to constant bombardment in the expectation that it will weaken Ukrainians’ will to resist and create greater alarm in European capitals as the price of supporting Ukraine rises steadily.’