Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
Putin’s 2012 decrees have triggered widespread manipulation of cause-of-death data ever since, with cardiovascular deaths re-coded into other categories to meet political targets
A clash between Russia’s revanchist vision of European order and the West’s sovereignty-based model is driving Europe’s security crisis, now intensified by a weakening US commitment
A settlement on Russia’s terms would entrench Moscow’s gains, destabilise Ukraine, and undermine the foundations of Europe’s security order
Russia enters 2026 with slowing growth, rising fiscal strains, and a weakening industrial base, increasing the likelihood of a renewed budget shock
Russia’s foreign policy is in crisis, weakened by war, ageing leadership, and a steady loss of regional influence
Russia’s economy has adapted to war but stalled. Fiscal strength masks decline as innovation and talent drain away – giving way to stagnation
The Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric blurs the line between deterrence and war, making escalation unlikely but entirely possible
As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing
Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace
Since 2022, the Kremlin has cast the UK as enemy number one – reviving Anglophobia and targeting Britain across propaganda, culture, and cyber
Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed it to the sidelines of Middle Eastern diplomacy, reducing its role to symbolic gestures and cautious messaging
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