The 2026 elections will not change Russia’s political course, but will complete the current reshaping of the regime and may increase its exposure to latent public dissatisfaction
US–Europe tensions over Greenland are weakening transatlantic unity, expanding Russia’s room for manoeuvre, while simultaneously exposing the strategic and economic limits of the Kremlin’s ambitions, particularly in the Arctic
The fall of the Iranian regime would be a political blow for Moscow, further weakening its position in the Middle East, but it would not significantly affect Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine
The US capture of Maduro exposes Russia’s limited power, while normalising a force-based world order the Kremlin can exploit to legitimise its war against Ukraine
Russia enters 2026 with inflation under control but growth exhausted: a war-driven economy, fiscal constraints, and sanctions leave little room for recovery and heighten the risk of recession
Putin’s 2025 Direct Line makes clear that Russia is being locked into a present defined by war, economic constraint, and permanent confrontation with the West, with no vision for the future
Igor Krasnov’s appointment to the Supreme Court reflects the Kremlin’s effort to dismantle judicial autonomy and consolidate even tighter central control
The Kremlin quietly endorsed Lukashenka’s limited deal with Washington, seeing it not as a threat to its control over Belarus, but as a test case for US sanctions relief and a potential wedge in transatlantic unity
Russia’s ties with India endure despite Western pressure, highlighting the limits of US leverage and Moscow’s continued room for manoeuvre
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
Putin’s 2012 decrees have triggered widespread manipulation of cause-of-death data ever since, with cardiovascular deaths re-coded into other categories to meet political targets
A clash between Russia’s revanchist vision of European order and the West’s sovereignty-based model is driving Europe’s security crisis, now intensified by a weakening US commitment
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