Putin’s call for 'voluntary' business contributions is less about funding the war and more about reaffirming elite loyalty in an increasingly coercive system
Russia positions itself as a potential intermediary in the Iran war to convert limited leverage in the Middle East into bargaining power over Ukraine
Russia escalates rhetoric and pressure on Europe, leveraging the Iran conflict to influence Ukraine negotiations and challenge Western unity
Russian media portray Europe’s leaders as divided, weak, and in decline, amplifying internal dissent and contradictions to undermine the perception of European unity and strength
A brief window of higher revenues and Western distraction may let Moscow increase pressure in Ukraine, but a decisive breakthrough remains unlikely
Most Russians do not hold strong views on the war: around half express nominal support, but the majority remain passive and defer to the state’s decisions
Moscow hopes to maximise economic and geopolitical gains from the Iran crisis while avoiding the risks of a prolonged conflict
The Russian authorities are seeking sources of funding for the growing budget deficit, while preparing to tighten fiscal discipline and mobilise resources
Russia is carefully balancing its Middle East relationships and avoiding confrontation with the US, calculating that a prolonged crisis could benefit Moscow by diverting Western focus from Ukraine and boosting oil revenues
After four years of war, Russia has hardened into a more personalist and repressive system, adjusted its economy to prolonged confrontation, and signalled readiness for a sustained standoff with the West
The key rate cut comes amid stagnation in the civilian economy and mounting fiscal risks from a stronger rouble and weaker oil revenues
Production, exports and revenues are declining; sanctions mostly changed how Russia sells, not how much it sells
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