Senior Research Fellow, Head of Economics
Russia presents itself as China’s equal, but behind the rhetoric lies asymmetry: growing dependence, limited trust, and China’s rising dominance in Central Asia
Following the failed Alaska summit, Moscow ramps up nuclear signalling and seeks to pressure the US into pushing Kyiv to make concessions
Putin seeks to secure the Donbas and limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, yet military shortfalls and shifting public opinion leave the Kremlin with few strategic options
Putin approaches the Alaska talks convinced the balance favours him, yet signalling readiness for tactical concessions to cement control of occupied territories and seek sanctions relief
Moscow sees Trump’s vulnerability as a chance to explore a settlement in Ukraine while maintaining strategic advantage
While the Kremlin understands the strategic risks of direct conflict with NATO, it sees the Alliance’s current institutional and political fragmentation as an opportunity to intensify pressure by hybrid means
Russia tightens digital control with new bans and internet shutdowns, blending China’s isolation model with Belarus-style intimidation
Trump’s 50-day ultimatum is seen in Moscow not as a threat, but as a window of opportunity: a chance to press ahead with the summer offensive before new sanctions return to the table
Russia is losing its grip on the South Caucasus as Azerbaijan distances itself from Moscow – with wider implications
NATO pledges 5% GDP defence spend by 2035, sparking Kremlin fears of a widening military gap and fuelling Moscow’s bid to exploit Western divisions
Moscow’s negotiation strategy combines coercive diplomacy with a readiness for prolonged war, but growing economic and geopolitical constraints call its long-term viability into question
Russia positions itself as a mediator in the Iran–Israel conflict, but limited leverage and deep mistrust expose the fragility of its regional influence
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