Senior Research Fellow, Head of Economics
US–Europe tensions over Greenland are weakening transatlantic unity, expanding Russia’s room for manoeuvre, while simultaneously exposing the strategic and economic limits of the Kremlin’s ambitions, particularly in the Arctic
The fall of the Iranian regime would be a political blow for Moscow, further weakening its position in the Middle East, but it would not significantly affect Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine
The US capture of Maduro exposes Russia’s limited power, while normalising a force-based world order the Kremlin can exploit to legitimise its war against Ukraine
Putin’s 2025 Direct Line makes clear that Russia is being locked into a present defined by war, economic constraint, and permanent confrontation with the West, with no vision for the future
The Kremlin quietly endorsed Lukashenka’s limited deal with Washington, seeing it not as a threat to its control over Belarus, but as a test case for US sanctions relief and a potential wedge in transatlantic unity
Russia’s ties with India endure despite Western pressure, highlighting the limits of US leverage and Moscow’s continued room for manoeuvre
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
A settlement on Russia’s terms would entrench Moscow’s gains, destabilise Ukraine, and undermine the foundations of Europe’s security order
Russia’s foreign policy is in crisis, weakened by war, ageing leadership, and a steady loss of regional influence
The Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric blurs the line between deterrence and war, making escalation unlikely but entirely possible
As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing
Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace
Contact Us
[email protected]
