Senior Research Fellow, Head of Economics
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
A settlement on Russia’s terms would entrench Moscow’s gains, destabilise Ukraine, and undermine the foundations of Europe’s security order
Russia’s foreign policy is in crisis, weakened by war, ageing leadership, and a steady loss of regional influence
The Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric blurs the line between deterrence and war, making escalation unlikely but entirely possible
As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing
Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace
Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed it to the sidelines of Middle Eastern diplomacy, reducing its role to symbolic gestures and cautious messaging
Putin’s Valdai speech framed Russia as a global power ready for a long confrontation with the West in a ‘post-global’ era
Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade
Russia is seeking to influence the elections in Moldova through disinformation, bribery, and provocations, using local proxies to weaken pro-European forces
Russia is testing NATO’s defences through drone incursions and hybrid tactics, seeking to limit support for Ukraine and reshape Europe’s political landscape
Russia’s Far East remains key to its Eastern strategy — but faces demographic decline, weak returns, and dependence on China despite major state investment
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