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NEST Centre

NEST Centre

Senior Research Fellow, Head of Economics

Russian Foreign PolicyWar in UkraineUS-Russia RelationsRussian Domestic PoliticsMilitaryEU-Russia RelationsRussian EconomySanctionsRussian ElitesMiddle EastChina-Russia RelationsSouth Caucasus
Briefing Notes

Victory Day without victory: How Putin’s core symbol is becoming a liability

Russia’s Victory Day unfolds amid war stalemate, security fears, and waning support, exposing tensions between Kremlin propaganda and battlefield reality

Briefing Notes

Deadlock in the Russia–Ukraine war: Back to negotiations

Neither Russia nor Ukraine is showing readiness to halt the war and resume the peace process. However, the dynamics of the conflict suggest that they will most likely return to the negotiating table in the near future

Briefing Notes

High-level discussion of Russia’s economic problems is taking place for a reason

Putin spotlights economic decline as elections near, fueling elite tensions, pressure on government, and rising influence of security services

Briefing Notes

An uncomfortable partner: How the Kremlin attempts to keep Armenia in its orbit

Russia is not yet intervening in Armenia’s elections on behalf of any particular candidate, but it is exploiting the country’s economic dependence to prevent it from growing closer to the West

Briefing Notes

Loyalty, not money: Why Putin seeks ‘voluntary contributions’ from big business for the war against Ukraine

Putin’s call for 'voluntary' business contributions is less about funding the war and more about reaffirming elite loyalty in an increasingly coercive system

Briefing Notes

The Iran card and new flashpoints: How Moscow is raising the stakes in its confrontation with the West

Russia escalates rhetoric and pressure on Europe, leveraging the Iran conflict to influence Ukraine negotiations and challenge Western unity

Briefing Notes

War in the Persian Gulf and the prospects of a Russian offensive in Ukraine

A brief window of higher revenues and Western distraction may let Moscow increase pressure in Ukraine, but a decisive breakthrough remains unlikely

Briefing Notes

Return to the great game: How Moscow capitalises on the crisis around Iran

Moscow hopes to maximise economic and geopolitical gains from the Iran crisis while avoiding the risks of a prolonged conflict

Briefing Notes

War in the Middle East: Why Moscow did not come to Iran’s aid

Russia is carefully balancing its Middle East relationships and avoiding confrontation with the US, calculating that a prolonged crisis could benefit Moscow by diverting Western focus from Ukraine and boosting oil revenues

Briefing Notes

Russia after four years of war

After four years of war, Russia has hardened into a more personalist and repressive system, adjusted its economy to prolonged confrontation, and signalled readiness for a sustained standoff with the West

Briefing Notes

From ‘circus’ to ‘Fourth Reich’: How Russia interprets Munich 2026

Russian discourse on MSC 2026 casts the conference as a symbol of Europe’s strategic fragility and highlights evolving Kremlin narratives about the balance of power within the West

Briefing Notes

On the eve of Geneva: Can negotiations move beyond deadlock?

Ahead of the Geneva talks, Russia maintains its position and continues infrastructure strikes, suggesting that negotiations will remain stalled unless battlefield dynamics or external pressure significantly alter the parties’ calculations

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