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NEST Centre

NEST Centre

Senior Research Fellow, Head of Economics

Russian Foreign PolicyWar in UkraineUS-Russia RelationsRussian Domestic PoliticsMilitaryEU-Russia RelationsRussian EconomySanctionsRussian ElitesMiddle EastChina-Russia RelationsSouth Caucasus
Briefing Notes

War in the Persian Gulf and the prospects of a Russian offensive in Ukraine

A brief window of higher revenues and Western distraction may let Moscow increase pressure in Ukraine, but a decisive breakthrough remains unlikely

Briefing Notes

Return to the great game: How Moscow capitalises on the crisis around Iran

Moscow hopes to maximise economic and geopolitical gains from the Iran crisis while avoiding the risks of a prolonged conflict

Briefing Notes

War in the Middle East: Why Moscow did not come to Iran’s aid

Russia is carefully balancing its Middle East relationships and avoiding confrontation with the US, calculating that a prolonged crisis could benefit Moscow by diverting Western focus from Ukraine and boosting oil revenues

Briefing Notes

Russia after four years of war

After four years of war, Russia has hardened into a more personalist and repressive system, adjusted its economy to prolonged confrontation, and signalled readiness for a sustained standoff with the West

Briefing Notes

From ‘circus’ to ‘Fourth Reich’: How Russia interprets Munich 2026

Russian discourse on MSC 2026 casts the conference as a symbol of Europe’s strategic fragility and highlights evolving Kremlin narratives about the balance of power within the West

Briefing Notes

On the eve of Geneva: Can negotiations move beyond deadlock?

Ahead of the Geneva talks, Russia maintains its position and continues infrastructure strikes, suggesting that negotiations will remain stalled unless battlefield dynamics or external pressure significantly alter the parties’ calculations

Briefing Notes

Playing the arms race game: Russia’s post–New START calculus

With New START expired, Moscow is signalling arms-race readiness—but in reality is seeking to freeze the current nuclear balance and slow US modernisation

Briefing Notes

What to expect from Russia’s 2026 elections

The 2026 elections will not change Russia’s political course, but will complete the current reshaping of the regime and may increase its exposure to latent public dissatisfaction

Briefing Notes

The United States against Europe: Putin the winner

US–Europe tensions over Greenland are weakening transatlantic unity, expanding Russia’s room for manoeuvre, while simultaneously exposing limits of the Kremlin’s ambitions

Briefing Notes

Protests in Iran: Another setback for the Kremlin?

The fall of the Iranian regime would be a political blow for Moscow, further weakening its position in the Middle East, but it would not significantly affect Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine

Briefing Notes

Might makes right: How Maduro’s capture has affected Moscow’s position

The US capture of Maduro exposes Russia’s limited power, while normalising a force-based world order the Kremlin can exploit to legitimise its war against Ukraine

Briefing Notes

Year in review: What future does Putin offer Russia?

Putin’s 2025 Direct Line makes clear that Russia is being locked into a present defined by war, economic constraint, and permanent confrontation with the West, with no vision for the future

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