Senior Research Fellow, Head of Economics
While the Kremlin understands the strategic risks of direct conflict with NATO, it sees the Alliance’s current institutional and political fragmentation as an opportunity to intensify pressure by hybrid means
Russia tightens digital control with new bans and internet shutdowns, blending China’s isolation model with Belarus-style intimidation
Trump’s 50-day ultimatum is seen in Moscow not as a threat, but as a window of opportunity: a chance to press ahead with the summer offensive before new sanctions return to the table
Russia is losing its grip on the South Caucasus as Azerbaijan distances itself from Moscow – with wider implications
NATO pledges 5% GDP defence spend by 2035, sparking Kremlin fears of a widening military gap and fuelling Moscow’s bid to exploit Western divisions
Moscow’s negotiation strategy combines coercive diplomacy with a readiness for prolonged war, but growing economic and geopolitical constraints call its long-term viability into question
Russia positions itself as a mediator in the Iran–Israel conflict, but limited leverage and deep mistrust expose the fragility of its regional influence
Russia’s efforts to achieve technological independence are running into practical limits, with key national projects falling behind due to sanctions, weak institutions, and lack of capacity
Recent Ukrainian drone strikes and rail sabotage in Russia have exposed vulnerabilities in the political system and triggered negative reactions among loyalists, posing a political challenge for the Kremlin
Russia’s wartime economy is slowing: civilian output is shrinking, inflation is rising, and China now dominates industrial imports. Growth limits are in sight
Trump–Putin dialogue triggers a shift: Moscow and Kyiv drop irreconcilable ceasefire terms, paving the way for direct talks and a possible US–Russia summit
As the Kremlin reopens the door to peace talks, a new threat emerges: its own war supporters may see compromise as betrayal
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