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NEST Centre

NEST Centre

Senior Research Fellow, Head of Economics

Russian Foreign PolicyWar in UkraineUS-Russia RelationsRussian Domestic PoliticsMilitaryEU-Russia RelationsRussian EconomySanctionsRussian ElitesMiddle EastChina-Russia RelationsSouth Caucasus
Briefing Notes
  • 31 October 2025

The Kremlin’s greatest fear: Exclusion from a grand bargain

As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing

Briefing Notes
  • 25 October 2025

Putin understands only force: Why peace talks have stalled

Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace

Briefing Notes
  • 17 October 2025

A sideshow: How the war in Ukraine has undermined Russia’s influence in the Middle East

Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed it to the sidelines of Middle Eastern diplomacy, reducing its role to symbolic gestures and cautious messaging

Briefing Notes
  • 10 October 2025

Valdai 2025: Betting on a long war with the West

Putin’s Valdai speech framed Russia as a global power ready for a long confrontation with the West in a ‘post-global’ era

Briefing Notes
  • 4 October 2025

A budget without a future: How the Russian economy stays afloat

Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade

Briefing Notes
  • 26 September 2025

Elections in Moldova: A vulnerable state in the Kremlin’s crosshairs

Russia is seeking to influence the elections in Moldova through disinformation, bribery, and provocations, using local proxies to weaken pro-European forces

Briefing Notes
  • 19 September 2025

Escalation in Europe: How the Kremlin is testing NATO’s limits

Russia is testing NATO’s defences through drone incursions and hybrid tactics, seeking to limit support for Ukraine and reshape Europe’s political landscape

Briefing Notes
  • 12 September 2025

Turning East: How Russia’s ambitions in Asia are confronted by reality

Russia’s Far East remains key to its Eastern strategy — but faces demographic decline, weak returns, and dependence on China despite major state investment

Briefing Notes
  • 5 September 2025

Russia in a multipolar world: equal player or junior partner to China?

Russia presents itself as China’s equal, but behind the rhetoric lies asymmetry: growing dependence, limited trust, and China’s rising dominance in Central Asia

Briefing Notes
  • 29 August 2025

The return of coercive signalling: why Moscow is resorting to nuclear blackmail

Following the failed Alaska summit, Moscow ramps up nuclear signalling and seeks to pressure the US into pushing Kyiv to make concessions

Briefing Notes
  • 22 August 2025

The Kremlin between war and negotiations

Putin seeks to secure the Donbas and limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, yet military shortfalls and shifting public opinion leave the Kremlin with few strategic options

Briefing Notes
  • 15 August 2025

What will Putin bring to Alaska?

Putin approaches the Alaska talks convinced the balance favours him, yet signalling readiness for tactical concessions to cement control of occupied territories and seek sanctions relief

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Монтажная область 1

New Eurasian Strategies Centre (c) 2026

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