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NEST Centre

NEST Centre

Senior Research Fellow, Head of Economics

Russian Foreign PolicyWar in UkraineUS-Russia RelationsRussian Domestic PoliticsMilitaryEU-Russia RelationsRussian EconomySanctionsRussian ElitesMiddle EastChina-Russia RelationsSouth Caucasus
Briefing Notes
  • 21 December 2025

Belarusian potash: Why the Kremlin is interested in Lukashenka’s deal with the Trump administration

The Kremlin quietly endorsed Lukashenka’s limited deal with Washington, seeing it not as a threat to its control over Belarus, but as a test case for US sanctions relief and a potential wedge in transatlantic unity

Briefing Notes
  • 14 December 2025

A partnership under pressure: Russia, India, and the limits of Western leverage

Russia’s ties with India endure despite Western pressure, highlighting the limits of US leverage and Moscow’s continued room for manoeuvre

Briefing Notes
  • 7 December 2025

Beneficiaries of the war versus advocates of peace: Elite expectations and the reality of war

Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants

Briefing Notes
  • 28 November 2025

Negotiations of attrition: Why the Kremlin is in no hurry to strike a deal on Ukraine

A settlement on Russia’s terms would entrench Moscow’s gains, destabilise Ukraine, and undermine the foundations of Europe’s security order

Briefing Notes
  • 16 November 2025

The crisis of influence: How war and administrative stagnation undermine Russia’s foreign policy

Russia’s foreign policy is in crisis, weakened by war, ageing leadership, and a steady loss of regional influence

Briefing Notes
  • 9 November 2025

The new normal: Will the Kremlin use nuclear weapons?

The Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric blurs the line between deterrence and war, making escalation unlikely but entirely possible

Briefing Notes
  • 31 October 2025

The Kremlin’s greatest fear: Exclusion from a grand bargain

As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing

Briefing Notes
  • 25 October 2025

Putin understands only force: Why peace talks have stalled

Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace

Briefing Notes
  • 17 October 2025

A sideshow: How the war in Ukraine has undermined Russia’s influence in the Middle East

Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed it to the sidelines of Middle Eastern diplomacy, reducing its role to symbolic gestures and cautious messaging

Briefing Notes
  • 10 October 2025

Valdai 2025: Betting on a long war with the West

Putin’s Valdai speech framed Russia as a global power ready for a long confrontation with the West in a ‘post-global’ era

Briefing Notes
  • 4 October 2025

A budget without a future: How the Russian economy stays afloat

Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade

Briefing Notes
  • 26 September 2025

Elections in Moldova: A vulnerable state in the Kremlin’s crosshairs

Russia is seeking to influence the elections in Moldova through disinformation, bribery, and provocations, using local proxies to weaken pro-European forces

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Монтажная область 1

New Eurasian Strategies Centre (c) 2026

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