Russia presents itself as China’s equal, but behind the rhetoric lies asymmetry: growing dependence, limited trust, and China’s rising dominance in Central Asia
Russia, Iran, and Türkiye face rising US, EU, and Chinese influence in the South Caucasus, as shifting alliances and energy ties reshape the region
Putin approaches the Alaska talks convinced the balance favours him, yet signalling readiness for tactical concessions to cement control of occupied territories and seek sanctions relief
Donald Trump is betting on a deal over Ukrainian land – but Russia's leader has far bigger plans
Moscow sees Trump’s vulnerability as a chance to explore a settlement in Ukraine while maintaining strategic advantage
While the Kremlin understands the strategic risks of direct conflict with NATO, it sees the Alliance’s current institutional and political fragmentation as an opportunity to intensify pressure by hybrid means
Russia is losing its grip on the South Caucasus as Azerbaijan distances itself from Moscow – with wider implications
The flexible, albeit unequal Sino-Russian partnership endures, defying US hopes of a split, as Trump-era turmoil deepens the two countries’ shared interest
NATO pledges 5% GDP defence spend by 2035, sparking Kremlin fears of a widening military gap and fuelling Moscow’s bid to exploit Western divisions
Moscow’s negotiation strategy combines coercive diplomacy with a readiness for prolonged war, but growing economic and geopolitical constraints call its long-term viability into question
Russia positions itself as a mediator in the Iran–Israel conflict, but limited leverage and deep mistrust expose the fragility of its regional influence
Recent Ukrainian drone strikes and rail sabotage in Russia have exposed vulnerabilities in the political system and triggered negative reactions among loyalists, posing a political challenge for the Kremlin
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