Russia faces slowing growth as high rates curb demand; rouble gains wane, imports rise, and reliance on military output risks deeper recession
Russia tightens digital control with new bans and internet shutdowns, blending China’s isolation model with Belarus-style intimidation
Trump’s 50-day ultimatum is seen in Moscow not as a threat, but as a window of opportunity: a chance to press ahead with the summer offensive before new sanctions return to the table
Russia’s efforts to achieve technological independence are running into practical limits, with key national projects falling behind due to sanctions, weak institutions, and lack of capacity
Black Sea talks yield an uneven outcome. While framed as mutual restraint, the arrangement strengthens Russia’s position without imposing meaningful limits on its actions
Putin seeks negotiations on his terms while using conflict to weaken the West. A ceasefire remains distant, but the Kremlin aims to maximise its leverage
Putin views a ceasefire as a tool for securing Western concessions. Moscow seeks to weaken Ukraine through negotiations while keeping the option of war open
Western sanctions against Russia have had mixed results, hitting finance and technology but failing to halt the war or isolate Russia due to global loopholes
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