Russia enters 2026 with inflation under control but growth exhausted: a war-driven economy, fiscal constraints, and sanctions leave little room for recovery and heighten the risk of recession
The Kremlin quietly endorsed Lukashenka’s limited deal with Washington, seeing it not as a threat to its control over Belarus, but as a test case for US sanctions relief and a potential wedge in transatlantic unity
Russia’s ties with India endure despite Western pressure, highlighting the limits of US leverage and Moscow’s continued room for manoeuvre
Russia’s war has created both winners and losers, yet neither group is able to shape or secure the outcome it wants
Russia enters 2026 with slowing growth, rising fiscal strains, and a weakening industrial base, increasing the likelihood of a renewed budget shock
Russia’s economy has adapted to war but stalled. Fiscal strength masks decline as innovation and talent drain away – giving way to stagnation
Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace
Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade
New EU sanctions against Moscow are unlikely to be effective, with other measures seen as necessary to weaken Putin
Russia’s economy is stagnating but not collapsing: the budget deficit is growing, yet it can still be covered
If the West really wants to force Russia to stop the war, it needs to focus on military build-up — not just economic action
Following the failed Alaska summit, Moscow ramps up nuclear signalling and seeks to pressure the US into pushing Kyiv to make concessions
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