Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace
Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade
New EU sanctions against Moscow are unlikely to be effective, with other measures seen as necessary to weaken Putin
Russia’s economy is stagnating but not collapsing: the budget deficit is growing, yet it can still be covered
If the West really wants to force Russia to stop the war, it needs to focus on military build-up — not just economic action
Following the failed Alaska summit, Moscow ramps up nuclear signalling and seeks to pressure the US into pushing Kyiv to make concessions
Russia faces slowing growth as high rates curb demand; rouble gains wane, imports rise, and reliance on military output risks deeper recession
Russia tightens digital control with new bans and internet shutdowns, blending China’s isolation model with Belarus-style intimidation
Trump’s 50-day ultimatum is seen in Moscow not as a threat, but as a window of opportunity: a chance to press ahead with the summer offensive before new sanctions return to the table
Russia’s efforts to achieve technological independence are running into practical limits, with key national projects falling behind due to sanctions, weak institutions, and lack of capacity
Black Sea talks yield an uneven outcome. While framed as mutual restraint, the arrangement strengthens Russia’s position without imposing meaningful limits on its actions
Putin seeks negotiations on his terms while using conflict to weaken the West. A ceasefire remains distant, but the Kremlin aims to maximise its leverage
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