A settlement on Russia’s terms would entrench Moscow’s gains, destabilise Ukraine, and undermine the foundations of Europe’s security order
Russia enters 2026 with slowing growth, rising fiscal strains, and a weakening industrial base, increasing the likelihood of a renewed budget shock
Russia’s foreign policy is in crisis, weakened by war, ageing leadership, and a steady loss of regional influence
Russia’s economy has adapted to war but stalled. Fiscal strength masks decline as innovation and talent drain away – giving way to stagnation
The Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric blurs the line between deterrence and war, making escalation unlikely but entirely possible
As US–China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing
Moscow sees Trump’s attempts to secure a ceasefire not as a show of weakness – a chance to gain more, not to make a step towards peace
Since 2022, the Kremlin has cast the UK as enemy number one – reviving Anglophobia and targeting Britain across propaganda, culture, and cyber
Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed it to the sidelines of Middle Eastern diplomacy, reducing its role to symbolic gestures and cautious messaging
Putin’s Valdai speech framed Russia as a global power ready for a long confrontation with the West in a ‘post-global’ era
Russia’s 2026–2028 budget shows managed stagnation: war spending dominates, society adapts to economic pressure, but optimism is starting to fade
New EU sanctions against Moscow are unlikely to be effective, with other measures seen as necessary to weaken Putin
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