While the Kremlin understands the strategic risks of direct conflict with NATO, it sees the Alliance’s current institutional and political fragmentation as an opportunity to intensify pressure by hybrid means
Russia tightens digital control with new bans and internet shutdowns, blending China’s isolation model with Belarus-style intimidation
Trump’s 50-day ultimatum is seen in Moscow not as a threat, but as a window of opportunity: a chance to press ahead with the summer offensive before new sanctions return to the table
Post-war Russia may face social unrest, veteran tensions, and renewed repression – unless the Kremlin channels aggression into a new conflict
Russia is losing its grip on the South Caucasus as Azerbaijan distances itself from Moscow – with wider implications
Russia can sustain current war spending, but limited innovation and sanctions risk long-term economic stagnation and widening technological gaps
Russia’s military overhaul is constrained by structural, economic, and demographic limits, reinforcing reliance on mass, firepower, and nuclear deterrence
Russia is reshaping its military using Soviet-era models, raising the risk of strategic stagnation and potential confrontation with NATO
Over the past year, Putin has tightened control, sidelined institutions, and deepened personal rule — while quietly preparing for generational change and confrontation with the West
The flexible, albeit unequal Sino-Russian partnership endures, defying US hopes of a split, as Trump-era turmoil deepens the two countries’ shared interest
NATO pledges 5% GDP defence spend by 2035, sparking Kremlin fears of a widening military gap and fuelling Moscow’s bid to exploit Western divisions
Mikhail Kasyanov, former Russian Prime Minister, speaks on Putin’s Ukraine strategy, war finances, and Russia’s shifting prospects
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