Senior Research Fellow, Head of Economics
Russia’s efforts to achieve technological independence are running into practical limits, with key national projects falling behind due to sanctions, weak institutions, and lack of capacity
Recent Ukrainian drone strikes and rail sabotage in Russia have exposed vulnerabilities in the political system and triggered negative reactions among loyalists, posing a political challenge for the Kremlin
Russia’s wartime economy is slowing: civilian output is shrinking, inflation is rising, and China now dominates industrial imports. Growth limits are in sight
Trump–Putin dialogue triggers a shift: Moscow and Kyiv drop irreconcilable ceasefire terms, paving the way for direct talks and a possible US–Russia summit
As the Kremlin reopens the door to peace talks, a new threat emerges: its own war supporters may see compromise as betrayal
Victory Day has become a tool of mobilisation. The Kremlin now uses war memory to justify aggression and offer symbolic stability amid public anxiety
North Korea’s role in Russia’s war is limited militarily but rich in symbolism, offering strategic dividends to both regimes – and raising fresh risks for Beijing
The Kremlin sees US exit threats from Ukraine talks as a tactic, not a real risk – and may use them to boost its own position
Russia rejects a simple ceasefire – seeking a broader deal on European security – but may still compromise if the US offers firm strategic guarantees
Putin resists de-escalation in Ukraine, signalling distrust of Trump’s plan and betting on waning US support by mid-summer
Putin’s Murmansk speech signals a bid to reshape global order – reviving spheres of influence and sidelining universal norms
Black Sea talks yield an uneven outcome. While framed as mutual restraint, the arrangement strengthens Russia’s position without imposing meaningful limits on its actions
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