Donald Trump is betting on a deal over Ukrainian land – but Russia's leader has far bigger plans
Russia faces slowing growth as high rates curb demand; rouble gains wane, imports rise, and reliance on military output risks deeper recession
Moscow sees Trump’s vulnerability as a chance to explore a settlement in Ukraine while maintaining strategic advantage
While the Kremlin understands the strategic risks of direct conflict with NATO, it sees the Alliance’s current institutional and political fragmentation as an opportunity to intensify pressure by hybrid means
Russia tightens digital control with new bans and internet shutdowns, blending China’s isolation model with Belarus-style intimidation
Trump’s 50-day ultimatum is seen in Moscow not as a threat, but as a window of opportunity: a chance to press ahead with the summer offensive before new sanctions return to the table
Post-war Russia may face social unrest, veteran tensions, and renewed repression – unless the Kremlin channels aggression into a new conflict
Russia is losing its grip on the South Caucasus as Azerbaijan distances itself from Moscow – with wider implications
Russia can sustain current war spending, but limited innovation and sanctions risk long-term economic stagnation and widening technological gaps
Russia’s military overhaul is constrained by structural, economic, and demographic limits, reinforcing reliance on mass, firepower, and nuclear deterrence
Russia is reshaping its military using Soviet-era models, raising the risk of strategic stagnation and potential confrontation with NATO
Over the past year, Putin has tightened control, sidelined institutions, and deepened personal rule — while quietly preparing for generational change and confrontation with the West
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